The Director of Research and Chief Investment Officer at Panterra Real Estate Group, Ayo Ibaru, has said that the real estate market in 2026 will see uneven submarket growth tempered by pre-election uncertainties.
Ibaru stated this recently during his presentation at the 2026 Nigeria Construction & Real Estate Market Outlook. The event, themed ‘Infrastructure Development: A Catalyst for Real Estate, Construction & Economic Growth’, was organised by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Nigeria Group in collaboration with the Nigerian Institution of Surveyors and the Nigerian Institute of Quantity Surveyors.
According to him, some analysts see infrastructure-led expansion and digital integration driving opportunities.
“The real estate market in 2026 will see uneven submarket growth tempered by pre-election uncertainties. Recent studies underscore the market’s resilience, contributing 5–6 per cent to the gross domestic product. This outlook draws on patterns where pre-election years often witness caution and a slowdown in transaction volumes. Analyses of past election cycles reveal that the 2019, 2015, and 2011 presidential elections each reflect sensitivity to electoral cycles,” he stated.
Ibaru highlighted that investment activity is characteristically hesitant and then selective, adding that the approach to the 2023 elections saw liquidity in certain submarkets. He emphasised that whether this represented genuine demand or speculative behaviour remains to be settled.
“A strengthening naira, announced inflation reduction, and relative forex stability are focus areas for the managers of Nigeria’s economy. And there are new considerations. For one, the United States is more willing to muscle its way into emerging markets. This could moderate transaction volumes while encouraging more liquid, lower-risk opportunities,” he stated.
Ibaru pointed out that market performance in pre-election periods has been marked by subdued activity, delaying commitments.
“Ahead of 2023, for example, saw high inflation and policy flux contributing to a 20–30 per cent dip in foreign investments. Some anticipate similar fortunes for 2026–2027. Still, election-related spending will likely boost short-term rentals and commercial spaces, albeit temporarily,” he stated.
He predicted that long-term projects with dependencies on the government will stall due to concerns around policy somersaults.
“Post-reform efforts from 2025 have been heralded as investment risk mitigants. This assumes that the Central Bank of Nigeria maintains a tight policy to stabilise the naira. Pre-election years typically amplify land disputes. Still, demand for warehousing will remain unfazed by Nigeria’s economic prevarications,” he stated.
Ibaru mentioned that land markets in 2026 are on track to appreciate, stressing that this would be driven by the aforementioned infrastructure and diaspora inflows.
“Land scarcity in urban cores will, however, continue to push values further north. Regional disparities will see the Southwest dominating transaction value due to active dynamics, regardless of title risks and speculation. Land markets remain strong, driven by early-stage investor interest, road infrastructure, and concentric zone-styled city expansion. In Abuja, land markets will likely depend on government employment cycles, the political elite, and the diplomatic community. Port Harcourt’s land market is likely to resume more stable growth patterns, a likely outcome of the frigid armistice between the current state governor and his predecessor,” he stated.
